WORTH WATCHING

This page is included to point out significant changes in technical indicators which came to our attention and which may signal changes in trends in the markets noted below.  The page is updated only when we see significant and unusual change in the markets noted.  Remarks will not be updated and apply only as of the close on the dates noted and may or may not apply after those dates.  

The remarks on this page and others in this web site are strictly the author's personal views and are not always correct.  Market fluctuations are impossible to predict.  Taking any position in any market poses great risk.  Those who speculate must recognize that prices fluctuate unpredictably and they may lose all of, part of, or (in some cases) even more than their investment.  Past performance cannot be related to future performance.

 

April 29, 2008 The precious metals are beginning to show signs of potentially falling back down.    Gold hit a high of $1,034 six weeks ago but has fallen back to $875 since. The number of long speculators in the gold market is mostly down sharply in the past month as more speculators have been selling than buying.  Demand for physical gold was down in the latest reported quarter.  Silver and platinum are also beginning to show signs of topping out.  Crude Oil and the U.S. Dollar which influence the metals may have stabilized, at least in the short term.  Because the precious metals rose so much in the past year there is a potential for large declines.
January 10, 2008 Gold has broken above its previous high into all time record highs.  Silver is at the highest price since 1980.  The  trend on the precious metals is positive - Volatility in financial markets world wide is suggesting potentially large moves in other markets as well.  The potential exists now for a large move in the precious metals - there are many similarities to the conditions in 1980 when the precious metals soared.
October 31, 2007 Gold is making new highs, now approaching the highs of 1980 when gold traded over $850 and silver traded near $50.  This is mostly in reaction to the rising record high Crude Oil prices as it was in 1980.
September 20, 2007 After some weakness last month, the gold, silver and platinum are beginning to regain some of their recent losses; gold is rising above the high of $721 (spot price) where it was turned back last year.  Although the technical indicators are mostly overbought, the weakness in the U.S. Dollar and the rising price of Crude Oil is potentially attracting more long speculators to the precious metals markets.
August 15, 2007 The precious metals are beginning to weaken again as the gold, silver and platinum are approaching the lowest point in almost a year.  A further decline will be negative.  Considering the high volatility in other financial markets there is a potential for large trading ranges.
August 14, 2007 The stock market Averages  are beginning to turn downwards.  The averages recovered a little of last month's loss but are beginning to turn down again.  Other major world stock markets have suffered major losses in recent weeks as well.  A further significant decline will be negative - considering the big rise in the stock markets during the past year, there is potential for large moves and volatility ahead, mostly downward. . 
June 12, 2007 The precious metals gold, silver and platinum are trading near 5 month lows.  The rise in Crude Oil which helped the precious metals last year has leveled off and the indicators are suggesting potential weakness ahead. The indicators on all three precious metals appear exceptionally negative now. 
May 9, 2007 The indicators on the Crude Oil are beginning to show signs of turning down after some minor recovery in the past 2 months.  Weaker Crude Oil prices can potentially weaken the precious metals as well. The indicators on the gold, silver and platinum are beginning to show signs of weakening as well.
April 26, 2007 After some recovery in the past month, the indicators on the gold, silver and platinum are beginning to turn down again.  There are near record numbers of long speculators in the gold market now, tending to make the gold (and other precious metals) volatile - the large number of long speculators in the gold market now make the price potentially precarious.
March 2, 2007 The stock market indicators are beginning to turn down.  The widespread large declines of the past week have spread nervousness and uncertainty to most major world stock markets.  A continued significant decline could be a prelude to a much larger decline ahead.
March 1, 2007 The  gold price was influenced to the downside by the drop in the stock market, experiencing an intra day drop of over $30 following the stock market drop.  The gold market is loaded with near record numbers of speculators and other long positions which will be under pressure to sell if the gold continues to weaken.  Because of the unusually high open interest, there is a lot of potential selling, making the gold precarious.  The other precious metals, silver  and platinum  are likely to follow the gold price. 
January 4, 2007 The precious metals, gold, silver and platinum continue in downtrends.  Although they traded in a limited range during the past month, the indicators are beginning to turn down again.  The recent sharp drops in the Crude Oil, and the  copper are creating a negative environment in the precious metals.  The precious metals rose with the Crude Oil because of its inflation implications but are likely to weaken (with potentially sharp declines) as the Crude Oil declines. 
October 24, 2006 The comments of September 12 and August 15 are repeated again.  Gold, silver and platinum continue in downtrends with the potential to fall back to lows made earlier in the year and potentially much lower.   Crude Oil, which has influenced the precious metals has fallen back to the lowest price in a year.
September 12, 2006 The comments of August 15 below are repeated.  Gold, silver and platinum continue in downtrends with the potential to fall back to lows made earlier in the year and potentially much lower.   Crude Oil, which has influenced the precious metals has fallen back to the lowest price in 6 months.
August 15, 2006 Indicators in the precious metals markets, gold, silver and platinum have turned more negative with the decline of the past few days.  Gold has been influenced by the Crude Oil which is in a declining trend and at the lowest price in over a month. 
July 12, 2006  The indicators on the stock market are taking a definite turn to the downside.  
June 12, 2006  Indicators in the precious metals markets, gold, silver and platinum continue to be negative.  The remarks of June 2 below are repeated again here.  The prices of these three precious metals are potentially precarious.
June 12, 2006 Indicators on the stock market remain negative as stock markets around the world have been declining  in the past few weeks. The recent large declines are negative, potentially indicating further large declines ahead.  Some indicators are approaching oversold but others are not, suggesting potential for further decline ahead.
June 2, 2006 The indicators in the precious metals markets,  gold, silver and platinum continue to be negative as buyers lose interest while the price declines.  The number of open contracts in New York is the lowest since last August before gold broke above $450. Platinum especially has a big downside potential ( click here) but is a very thin market and potentially very volatile.
May 30, 2006 The indicators on the stock market are turning down - the stock market has suffered several days of sharp declines during the past 2 weeks while world wide stock markets have also been weak - the market now appears to be in the midst of a potentially large decline.
May 19, 2006 Indicators in the gold and silver are beginning to turn down and fall below potential support areas. The uptrend in the precious metals has been broken.  If they weaken further the prices are potentially precarious because they rose so fast in a short time.
May 10, 2006 The financial markets are undergoing a rare change as the oil price and other commodities reach record highs while the value of the Dollar is beginning to decline.  The widespread scope of the present trend reversal is not unlike that of 1979-1980 when gold, silver,  platinum and currency markets underwent large changes in a matter of a few months.  Until the Dollar reverses its present downtrend, the climactic move now occurring in these markets is likely to continue.
May 10, 2006 The remarks dated May 1 below are repeated.  The precious metals markets continue to be in the midst of climactic upside move.
May 1, 2006 The precious metals continue to rise.  Gold and  silver are in the midst of climactic upside move with a potential to go much higher.  It is typical of this type of move to end with the a large and disproportionate rise to the upside with lots of volume.  See the gold page for more details. 
March 27, 2006 The precious metals have resumed their uptrend into prices not seen for a quarter of a century.  Although there is likely to be lots of volatility and fluctuation in the gold and  silver these markets appear to be in the midst of a climactic upside move. (See remarks dated February 1, 2006 below)
March 8, 2006 After making new highs in the past week, the precious metals have broken their uptrend with the decline of the past 2 days.  Because of the large rise in the past few months, there is a big potential downside in the precious metals.
March 7, 2006 The indicators on the Stock Market averages are negative.
March 2, 2006 We repeat the comments February 1 comments below.  The precious metals, gold,  silver and platinum are making multi year record highs with the potential to go higher.
February 7, 2006  The Stock Market averages continue to show signs of turning back down. 
February 1, 2006 There are an increasing number of similarities in the gold market to 1979 and 1980 when gold soared to around $850 an ounce.  Now, as then, the oil price is rising to levels not seen before.  There was a growing threat of conflict with Iran as there is now.  Now, as then, U.S. interest rates are rising.  The prices of platinum and silver are also rising sharply.
January 18, 2006 The Stock Market averages are beginning to show signs of turning back down.  A further significant decline in the averages will tend to turn the stock market indicators towards negative.
December 20, 2005 The precious metals,  Gold, Silver and Platinum have reversed their uptrend of the past month, now declining in a volatile market with wide ranges.  The U.S. Dollar is still near high levels, a factor which is usually negative for the precious metals in the longer term.   The weakness in the metals during the past week is likely to encourage more selling, particularly as margin calls go out.
December 6, 2005 The Stock Market averages are beginning to show signs of turning back down.  A further significant decline in the averages will tend to turn the stock market indicators towards negative.
December 6, 2005  The precious metals,  Gold, Silver and Platinum have risen above potential resistance areas.  A further rise at these high levels could lead to a climactic upside rise. 
November 29, 2005 Although the U.S. Dollar remains near the highest point in 2 years, the Gold, Silver and Platinum have risen - so far the indicators are suggesting this is only a temporary divergence from its previous declining trend due to the high numbers of speculators in the market.  Gold and Silver are at major resistance areas - because of the high number of speculators in these markets any weakness could be potentially precarious.
November 16, 2005 We continue to repeat the comments made below on November 3 and before.  The U.S. Dollar is at the highest point in 2 years while the Euro, the Pound, the Yen, are at or near the lowest point in  2 years.  The Gold and Silver have been declining but in spite of volatility today are likely to follow the foreign currencies down.  The Platinum is also likely to decline with the other precious metals.
November 3, 2005 We continue to repeat the comments made on October 4.   The U.S. Dollar is at the highest point in over a year while the Euro, the Pound, the Yen, are at or near the lowest points in a year or more.  Gold and Silver are also weakening.  Platinum is showing some signs of weakness, but this is a very thin and  very volatile market, but because the price is so much higher than it has historically been, there is a big downside potential.
October 4, 2005 The comments dated August 21 below are repeated.  The U.S. Dollar is near the highest point since July while the  Euro, the Pound, the Yen, are at or near the lowest points in a year or more.  Gold and Silver are beginning to weaken again.
August 21, 2005 The comments below on July 6 are repeated - the U.S. Dollar remains near high levels while the Euro, the Pound, the Yen, and Silver are not far from recent lows -  the Gold price is also beginning to weaken again.  The trend in the Platinum has also turned down - this market is much higher than it has historically been, although it is a very thin and potentially volatile market.
August 8, 2005 The indicators on all 3 major Stock Market averages are beginning to turn down.  Although there could be fluctuation in both directions, it appears that the market may be ready to resume its declining trend.
July 6, 2005 The comments dated March 21(and April 28) below are repeated.  The financial markets are in the midst of a major trend change as the U.S. Dollar continues to rise while the Euro, the Pound, the Yen, Gold and Silver continue to make new recent lows.
June 24, 2005 The sharp decline in the Stock Market in the past 2 days has turned the market indicators negative - the uptrend of the 3 major stock averages has been broken as prices fall below the uptrend channel of the past month.
June 1, 2005 The Gold price closed at the lowest price since September of last year.  The indicators continue to turn down, suggesting further weakness ahead for the gold. 
May 17, 2005 The Stock Market has been recovering from recent losses, now potentially breaking its downtrend, potentially positive for the market.  The U.S. Dollar continues to strengthen as the Euro, the Pound, the Yen, gold and silver continue to weaken
April 28, 2005 The indicators on the Stock Market are negative as the major averages remain in a sharp downtrend, suggesting further decline in the stock market.
April 28, 2005 The comments dated March 21 below are repeated.  The financial markets appear to be going through a major trend change as the currencies and precious metals weaken while the U.S. Dollar is stable and potentially positive.
March 21, 2005 Recent high volume in many financial markets combined with the technical indicators are indicating a change in the recent uptrend.  The indicators on gold and silver as well as the Euro and British Pound are beginning to turn down, potentially a major change to the downside. The U.S. Dollar is beginning to show positive indicators.
November 8, 2004 Some markets are potentially close to making big moves.  The U.S. Dollar is making lows not seen in over a decade while the Gold is close to making 16 year highs.   At the same time, Crude Oil markets are at record high levels.  These are situations not unlike that which occurred in the years 1979-1980. In those years this type of activity led to sharp moves - gold hit over $850, silver was close to $50.   If these markets continue their present trend there is a strong potential of big moves.
March 24, 2004 After showing some hints of stabilization in the past week, today's sharp reversal in the Euro and British Pound, may be a resumption of their down trends.  Although the indicators have not changed significantly yet, further decline will turn the indicators negative.  A drop in these currencies could adversely influence the gold and silver markets.
March 23, 2004 After weakening during the past few weeks, the foreign currencies, the Euro and British Pound, are beginning to show signs of stabilization, some indicators beginning to turn up while the indicators on the U.S. Dollar Index are beginning to turn down.  After a minor setback earlier in March, Gold and Silver appear positive.
February 26, 2003 The comments as of January 29 below are repeated in that the foreign currencies appear negative, while, Gold and Silver, are beginning to weaken.
January 29, 2004 The foreign currency, and the gold and silver markets are in the midst of a potentially "climactic" move, having moved sharply to the upside in the beginning of January and now reversing themselves.  The indicators on the precious metals, Gold and Silver, are turning down, as are the indicators on the Euro and the British Pound and are potentially volatile.
December 30, 2003 The persistence of the overbought conditions in precious metals and foreign currency markets while the U.S. Dollar hits multi year lows may be suggesting a potential climactic "blow off" in some of the markets, potentially a lot of volatility, a potentially sharp rise in gold and silver, and an acceleration of the recent weakness in the dollar. This type of technical "blow off" would not be unusual at the end of a 2 year uptrend (or downtrend in the case of the Dollar) which occurred in these markets.
December 18, 2003 The indicators in the foreign currency and precious metals markets remain mostly positive although some are overbought.  High volume as has recently occurred in the currency markets often signals a change in trend.  So far there has been no change in the uptrend, but the uniformity of the high volume in the major currency markets may turn out to be a hint that things are near a change. 
December 10, 2003 Although the indicators on the Gold and Silver remain mostly positive some indicators are showing signs of a downside reversal.  At the same time unusually high volume is coming into the foreign currency markets, possibly indicating the U.S. Dollar is approaching a bottom.
November 5, 2003 The indicators on the Euro, the British Pound the Japanese Yen, Gold, and Silver are turning negative while the  U.S. Dollar Index is turning more positive.
October 31, 2003 The Silver price is beginning to show signs of turning down.
October 15, 2003 The Euro is beginning to show signs of weakening after its recent run up.  The indicators on the U.S. Dollar Index are beginning to turn up, potentially negative for the Euro.
September 16, 2003 The Gold price has been stalled in its recent rally and beginning to show signs of turning down.  Record number of long speculators in the market now make it very vulnerable.  A break below $370 would tend to be negative.
September 8, 2003 The indicators on the Japanese Yen are beginning to weaken as the Yen is up against a potentially strong resistance area.
September 2, 2003 After trying to make some headway and rise above the highs of earlier this year, the Silver appears ready to give back some of its recent gains.
July 15, 2003 Gold and Silver have given up recent gains and appear very negative.
June 29, 2003 The remarks of June 19 below are repeated -- The British Pound has now also joined in the down trend and the U.S. Dollar Index has turned positive.
June 19, 2003 Most of the technical indicators we use are beginning to show the following changes:  The Euro, the Yen, Gold, and Silver are turning negative while the  U.S. Dollar Index has stabilized.
June 19, 2003 Japanese Yen The indicators on the Yen are beginning to turn negative as the Yen breaks below recent trading range.
June 9, 2003 Euro The indicators on the Euro are turning negative.  The position of traders shows a large position held by long speculators, making the Euro vulnerable.
May 30, 2003 Gold The technical indicators in the gold market are beginning to turn down while the U.S. Dollar is showing signs of stabilizing.
May 21, 2003 Japanese Yen The indicators on the Japanese Yen are beginning to turn down, suggesting further weakness ahead.
May 20, 2003 Silver The indicators in the silver market are beginning to turn down as silver finds strong resistance between $4.80 and $4.90.
April 13, 2003 Japanese Yen The indicators on the Japanese Yen are beginning to turn down, suggesting further weakness ahead.
March 6, 2003 Stock Market The indicators on all 3 major averages in the stock market continue to turn down.
March 2, 2003 Japanese Yen The indicators on the Japanese Yen are beginning to turn down, suggesting a change in trend after the Yen has risen for about 3 weeks.
March 2, 2003 Silver The indicators in the silver market are beginning to turn negative.  The market is loaded with long speculators and vulnerable.
February 26, 2003 Stock Market The indicators on all 3 major averages in the stock market are beginning to turn down.
January 31, 2003 Silver The indicators in the silver market are beginning to turn negative.  The market is loaded with long speculators and vulnerable.
January 31, 2003 Japanese Yen The indicators on the Japanese Yen are beginning to turn negative as the Yen breaks below its recent trading range.
January 17, 2003 Stock Market The indicators on all 3 major averages in the stock market are beginning to turn down.
January 14, 2003 Silver The indicators in the silver market are beginning to turn negative.  The market is loaded with long speculators and vulnerable.
January 7, 2003 Euro   Japanese Yen  British Pound The indicators on these 3 currencies are all beginning to show signs of turning down.  Click on the (yellow links) for more details.
November 19, 2002 Gold and Silver The indicators on these 2 precious metals are beginning to turn down or on the verge of turning outright negative.
November 15, 2002 Euro   Japanese Yen  British Pound The indicators on these 3 currencies are all beginning to show signs of turning down.  Click on the (yellow links) for more details.
November 12, 2002 Stock Market The indicators in the stock market are beginning to turn negative after being positive for much of the past month.
October 17, 2002 Euro The indicators in the Euro turned negative today. A large long speculative position in the Euro as of the latest report makes the Euro vulnerable to long liquidation. The Euro closed at 96.94 today.
September 26, 2002 Silver The indicators in the silver market are unusually negative as silver breaks below its recent trading range. The December silver closed at $4.525 today.
September 11, 2002 Japanese Yen The indicators on the Yen are beginning to appear negative again.  The U.S. Dollar indicators appear to have stabilized while foreign currencies appear ready to resume their decline.  The December Yen closed at 83.48 today.
September 11, 2002 British Pound The indicators on the Pound are beginning to appear negative.  The U.S. Dollar indicators appear to have stabilized while foreign currencies appear ready to resume their decline.  The December Pound closed at $1.5442 today.
September 11, 2002 Euro The indicators on the Euro are beginning to appear negative again.  The U.S. Dollar indicators appear to have stabilized while foreign currencies appear ready to resume their decline.  The December Euro closed at 97.19 today.
August 27, 2002 Stock Market  The short term indicators on the stock market are beginning to turn down after being mostly positive for a month. (The Dow Industrials closed today at 8,824, the NASDAQ at 1,347 and the S&P at 934)
August 23, 2002 Silver The indicators in the silver market are unusually negative as silver trades near its lowest level since February.  The December silver closed at $4.449 today.
August 23, 2002 Euro The indicators on the Euro are beginning to turn negative, suggesting further decline ahead.  The September Euro closed at 97.11 today.
August 22, 2002 Japanese Yen The indicators on the Japanese Yen are beginning to turn negative, suggesting further decline ahead.  The September Yen closed at 83.54 today.
August 20, 2002 October Platinum The indicators in this market are beginning to turn negative, following the other precious metals, gold and silver.  This is a very thin market and only for those who can withstand fluctuation.  The price closed today at $546.70.
August 14, 2002 Gold The indicators in the gold market are beginning to turn negative.  December gold closed at $313.50
July 17, 2002 Silver The indicators in the silver market are beginning to turn negative.  The September silver closed at $5.005 on July 17.
July 9, 2002 Gold Put Options Today's rally in the Gold market may be an opportunity to buy Put options in the gold market (October $300 Put options settled at $230 today - others are cheaper.)
July 9, 2002  Silver Put Options The recent improvement in the silver price may be an opportunity to buy Put options in the silver market (December $4.75 Put option settled at $475 - others are cheaper)
July 5, 2002 September Euro After being in a rising trend for about 4 months and overbought for about 2 weeks, the Euro is beginning to show signs of turning back down. Closed at .9703 on July 5.
July 5, 2002 September British Pound After being in a rising trend for about 4 months and extremely overbought for about 3 weeks, the Pound is beginning to show signs of turning back down. Closed at $1.5156 on July 5.
July 5, 2002 August Gold After several months of unwarranted strength, the indicators in the gold market are suggesting further weakness ahead.  Closed at $311.30 on July 3 (market was closed on July 4 and 5).
July 5, 2002 October Platinum The Platinum market has changed its rising trend and the indicators are now negative, suggesting further decline ahead. Closed at $519.50 on July 3 (market was closed on July 4 and 5).