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(UPDATED AS OF THE U.S. CLOSE ON THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 6)
(UPDATED NIGHTLY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

BRITISH POUND: 

TECHNICAL FORECAST: Short term indicators are still in a downtrend.

The Pound (SEPTEMBER contract) was a little higher today (Thursday),  closing at $2.0229 from $2.0203 yesterday, still not far from  the lowest close in about 6 weeks.    Click for British Pound Daily Chart.  (For nighttime trading quote: (CME)-Globex).  The Australian Dollar (SEPTEMBER contract) closed today (Thursday) at 82.85 from 82.24 yesterday.

The short term indicators (on the Pound) are beginning to turn down as the Pound weakened in the past week.  Further significant decline in the Pound will turn the indicators negative. 

(Click here for a look at recent activity in the Dollar Index.)  (Click here  for a longer term look at the Dollar.)  

Some Background:

The Pound recovered from its weakness of June 2001 when it broke below its support level of $1.39 - $1.40 area in June 2001, falling to $1.36, its lowest point in 15 years.  The area around $1.40 was a significant area since the Pound found important support in that area around 1993 as well as 6 years ago.

The fundamentals are difficult to discern, if anyone really knows what the fundamentals are since there are so many things which could influence the currency, especially government intervention.  No doubt interest rates and trade deficits have an influence as well, although the trade deficit has been constantly growing even while the U.S. Dollar was at 20 year highs in the years 2000 to 2002. 

To get a better picture of what the Pound is doing click on the longer term trend (Monthly Chart) or (Weekly Chart).  

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SHORT TERM INDICATORS (Based on British Pound Trading):

Stochastics Trading under neutral
Relative Strength At 61 from 59 yesterday
Time/Price Index Changed to declining trend July 27
Price Momentum Trading below neutral
MACD Trading below neutral
Commodity Channel Index Trading below neutral
40 Day Moving Average Below the average 

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